"It's important to understand this one thing, or else you'll be confused by everything that happens in the rest of the Donald Trump era: everything is dependent on his APPROVAL RATING, and there are no other determining factors when it comes to any decision that anyone involved will make.
The republicans in congress would like to protect him if they can. If a Russia investigation comes to the forefront it'll derail their legislative agenda. And if Trump goes down for Russia, it'll be such an embarrassing bodyblow to the party that "president Pence" and the GOP will just be playing out the string after that.
But if Trump's approval rating drops so toxically low that the republicans in congress decide they have to throw him overboard to salvage their own chances of reelection, they'll do it. They'd rather be politically crippled than be out of office entirely.
We've already seen hints of this. A week ago, when Trump's average approval rating just was hanging on just above the 40% mark, senate republicans were still rubber stamping his cabinet nominees no matter how embarrassing. They were firmly sticking with Trump in the hope he might somehow rebound. But a week later, with the Flynn incident having dragged Trump's average approval rating down down into the high thirties, suddenly the senate republicans became willing to reject a bad cabinet nominee — and now there are signs of life from the senate intel committee's Russia investigation.
Republicans in congress cannot be counted on to do the right thing or the patriotic thing, but they can be counted on to do whatever they think is the self-preserving thing. If Trump's approval rating remains at its current level, the republicans will allow Jeff Sessions to handle the DOJ's Russia investigation, which they know will go nowhere. But if Trump's approval rating keeps dropping, the republicans will get nervous about looking soft on Trump, and they'll insist Sessions recuse himself and we'll get a real investigation.
That's how it's going to go with every decision that everyone makes. I can promise you that the republicans in congress are getting out of bed in each morning and looking to see where Trump's approval rating is, both nationally and in their own state or district, before deciding how they're going to approach him that day.
If you want to force the republicans in congress to allow Trump to be taken down, you must drive his approval rating even lower than it is now. For reference, Richard Nixon's approval rating had to fall into the twenties before his allies in congress decided they needed to force him out.
Driving Trump's approval rating has nothing to do with his base at all. They'll stick with him. But only 27% of the country voted for him, and no more than half of them are his base. We must convince the people in the middle to turn against him. Treat his base like they don't exist. Focus on those who are still trying to keep an "open mind" about him. Those types are infuriating, but they are the ones whose minds can be changed, and who can drive his approval rating so things will be put in motion.
The people in the middle don't like politics to begin with, and they have a short attention span for it. Some of them will find the Trump-Russia scandal too arcane for them to care about, no matter how dire it may sound. Some of them may be more likely to turn against him simply because he's proving to be a weakling who cowers to world leaders and gets struck down by courts and whines all day. Use whatever scandal or flaw necessary to turn any given undecided person against Trump. Figure out which Trump scandal resonates with any given person, and use it.
And stop with the "...but Pence would be even worse" fatalism. Pence is a truly evil bigoted man. But it would be far easier for us to play out the rest of the string against a scandal-wounded Pence than against Trump. First we force Trump out of power, who could get us all killed at any moment, and then we focus on how to fight Pence.
Also, and this is crucial, there is no such thing under the law or the constitution as an "invalidated election" or a president being "disqualified due to treason" or a "do-over election" or any of these other imaginary terms being thrown around. Those are just random words struck together by wishful thinkers. There is literally no such thing, and demanding that it happen will yield the same result as demanding that dragons suddenly become a real thing. It's not that the odds of a "do-over election" are remote. It's. That. There. Is. No. Such. Thing. Anyone who tells you there's such a thing as a do-over election, or that there is any scenario where it could happen, is misleading you by waving convenient imaginary solutions in your face.
The next four years will follow the presidential order of succession, because that's how the law and the constitution work. If Trump is ousted, Pence will be president. If Pence is then ousted over his own scandals, the next person down the list will be president. As I've been saying since November 10th, this is a four year fight, and there is no magic wand for making it anything other than a four year fight. But if Trump goes, any "presidents" who assume the office for the remainder of the four year term will be progressively more powerless, and we can outmaneuver and outlast them all. But please understand that this was always going to be a four year fight — although it does get easier once we get past the crucial first hundred days. This, right now, is the worst of it.
In any case, the first step is neutralizing Trump so he can be forced out. And, I'll keep saying this until everyone involved is on the same page, his downfall will be based entirely on his APPROVAL RATING and no other factors. There is nothing under the law or the constitution, no evidence that could surface, that would automatically put impeachment in motion. It doesn't work that way. Impeachment hearings are at the sole discretion of the House republicans. They will do it if and only if his APPROVAL RATING falls far enough that they conclude it's their best option for their own political survival.
So everything that you say and do politically, make sure you do it with an eye on driving Trump's approval rating lower."
Please consider reading the Palmer Report. As I've said, I FIND Bill's reporting to be right on.
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